Grade trajectory forecast

This runs entirely in your browser. Nothing you type here — student nickname, grades, or anything else — is saved or sent anywhere, including to DT Classroom. Close the tab and it's gone. It is a simple model to prompt a conversation, not an official prediction: it is not produced, endorsed, or checked by AQA or any exam board.

Inputs

Student (for your own reference only)

Nickname or initials

Never a real name — same rule as everywhere else on DT Classroom.

Weeks until the exam/deadline15 wks

Current target / mock gradeGrade 6

NEA portfolio progress (50% of the grade)85%

Design brief, research, prototyping and the final piece — evidence actually produced so far, not time spent.

Workshop & lesson attendance92%

Active revision: 3D labs, quizzes, past papers8 hrs/wk

Time doing the Revision tab's labs, flashcards and exam-practice questions.

Passive revision: re-reading notes/slides4 hrs/wk

Exam stress (as you observe it)50 / 100

Typical sleep7.5 hrs

Quick scenarios

Outlook Optimal

Grade 6Projected median outcome

Grade 4Grade-at-risk (5th %ile)

3.5%Chance of under Grade 4

+0.3Grade movement vs target

Simulated trajectory

Median path 5th–95th percentile band

Outcome spread (1,000 simulated runs)

How this works, and its limits

This runs a simple Monte Carlo simulation client-side: it starts from the mock/target grade and takes a small random step most weeks, nudged up a little by attendance and active revision and pulled down a little by low sleep or high stress, then runs that one thousand times to see the spread of where it could land. NEA progress is blended in directly as half of the final grade, since AQA GCSE D&T (8552) is marked 50% NEA / 50% written exam.

What it is: a rough, illustrative model meant to prompt a conversation about where to focus next — more NEA evidence, more active recall, attendance, or wellbeing.

What it is not: a validated predictor, a Progress 8 or value-added calculation, or anything produced, reviewed or endorsed by AQA or any exam board. It does not use real student data, grade boundaries, or exam-board statistics — only the numbers you move on the sliders above. Treat the output as a prompt for professional judgement, not a substitute for it.